Thesis: arbitrage, analyst: kerrisdale-capital, sector: crypto.
see below
More ... latest change: 2026-02-28
Kerrisdale Capital published on MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR — $28.9 billion), a business software company better known for its large Bitcoin holdings. Kerrisdale suggested a pair trade of short MicroStrategy and long Bitcoin because MicroStrategy now trades at a 100%+ premium to its Bitcoin holdings. Kerrisdale argued,
“Bitcoin is now easily obtainable through brokerages, crypto exchanges, and more recently low fee ETPs and ETFs. None of the reasons commonly provided for MicroStrategy’s relative attractiveness justify paying well over double for the same coin. MicroStrategy’s trading history and basic common sense suggests the current inflated premium will contract, much as it has on prior occasions, providing a compelling opportunity for a pair trade.”
Kerrisdale suggested the pair trade could offer a ~50% return if MicroStrategy reverts to its historical average Bitcoin premium.
The Diff wrote a piece about $MSTR which explains the nature of the beast and gives a few sensible warnings about how, although the stock is hugely overpriced, it could get hugely more overpriced before it settles down to its natural level.
Last updated: 2026-03-07 by automated standardization process