Affirm (A/AFRM)

· Steve's Investing Blog


More ... latest change: 2026-02-08

2022 Nov 15 #

Some decent results caused the stock price to leap by 8%. Maybe now is the time to open a short position. It's down 82% on the year though ...

2026-01-26 #

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We are short shares of Affirm Holdings (AFRM), a $25 billion “Buy Now, Pay Later” lender built on the same subprime playbook that has undone monoline consumer finance companies for decades. Since 2022, Affirm’s GMV has grown at a 33% CAGR and its stock has risen nearly eightfold from the lows. But this is scale without quality and growth without durability. Expansion has been driven by aggressive credit extension to weak-credit borrowers and by extracting more borrowing from repeat users who are increasingly financing necessities rather than discretionary purchases. When a business shifts from financing Pelotons to installment plans for groceries, it is no longer “democratizing credit” but rather levering the financially fragile. As labor conditions soften and credit normalizes, the illusion of resilience will fade, exposing a balance-sheet lender built for expansion, not endurance. President Trump’s recent call to rein in high-cost consumer credit now places Affirm’s model under direct political scrutiny.

2026-01-30 USD 60.3 2026-01-30 USD 60.3

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